Wednesday, September 9, 2009

100% chance of precipitation

What’s up with all of the online weather sites and their doomsday forecast trends? Lately it seems like every time it’s supposed to rain for more than a couple of hours, the forecast calls for a “100% chance of precipitation” during the time period in question. Now I’m all about proper warnings when it comes to rain, but really, a 100% chance of precipitation?” In other words, you’re saying that you are so confident that it’s going to rain that you refuse to acknowledge even the minute possibility that maybe, just maybe, it might not rain when you say it will?

You really have to wonder why these people put themselves out there to the extent of locking in their predictions so very tightly. See, when you say that something is “100% going to happen,” you sort of cross that line between prediction and absolute statement…and given that weather folk are often times mocked and criticized for their inability to provide accurate forecast information, it makes little sense for them to commit to something as unambiguous as “100%.”

Maybe I’m reading into this a bit too much and reacting rather harshly, but there’s just something about seeing that there’s a 100% chance of rain in the near future that really bums the heck out of me. And as much as I usually tend to take the weather forecast with that proverbial grain of salt, when I see that “100%” on my computer screen under the taunting rain cloud image, I immediately start preparing for the feeling of rain streaming over my flip flops, causing me to do the rather uncomfortable “slip and squeak” all the way home.

I suppose the situation wouldn’t be all that different if they were to downgrade that 100 to a less definitive 99, and I’d be sure to pack an umbrella either way…Maybe it’s the lack of hope inherent in that 100% to which I’m rather hesitant to submit; or maybe it’s the fact that these people are way too confident for their own good. Come to think of it, it’s probably a 100% combination of both.

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